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Strategy

5% Chance of Winning. Would You Play?

By February 14, 2023January 11th, 2024No Comments

The test of a firstrate intelligence is the ability to hold two opposed ideas in mind at the same time and still retain the ability to function.” +F. Scott Fitzgerald
Imagine someone betting you on a coin flip, 50/50 odds increase your wealth or go broke…
Heads you will make nearly 3 times your present income
Tails you lose your life’s savings
Now imagine the odds have changed.  There is actually a 95% likelihood the coin will be Tails and you’ll lose everything.  Also even if the outcome is Heads, it will consume your existence causing irreversible health issues and severed relationships with those closest to you.  Would you take it?
Consider the 95% failure rate and the determination to not give up in business, it seems less “first-rate intelligence” and far more like madness.